Today on Twitter, I saw a poll item in a The Hill headline that sort of bewildered me. It said that 62 percent of Trump voters were sticking with Trump no matter what.
Well, OK, that sounds devastating, doesn’t it? Sixty-two percent!!!! A majority!!!
Except, of course, it isn’t.
Here’s my calculation. Trump received slightly more than 46 percent of the 2016 presidential vote. Let’s give him 47 percent just so we don’t have to mess around with decimals.
If sixty-two percent of Trump voters are sticking with Trump, and Trump votes represent 47 percent of all voters in the 2016 election…
62% of 47% is…
Let me blow that up…
…of 2016 Trump election voters are sticking with him no matter what.
Let’s remind ourselves what less than 30 percent means: the minority.
Math is not my strong suit so please let me know if my calculations are cockamamie.