I’ve been listening to pundits talk about the Democratic presidential campaign. I suppose because there are no firm numbers from actual voters, the pundits are concentrating on how much money the candidates have raised.<\/p>\n
And the way they talk about the money suggests that the most money means the most…well, what? Votes? Poll numbers?<\/p>\n
I’m a little surprised, and fairly annoyed. Because the money race does not seem to have moved the polls much at all. Everybody’s been making a big deal about Andrew Yang, for instance, and how much money he’s raised. He’s polling at 3.5% and it hasn’t moved very much.<\/p>\n
And what about Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg, with their unlimited pocketbooks? Steyer’s been in the race longer than Bloomberg and has been all over TV, but he’s at 1.8%, while Bloomberg is at 4.8%.<\/p>\n
Gosh ‘n’ golly! Is is possible money won’t buy this nomination?<\/p>\n
Here’s what I’ve dug out — thanks to the New York Times (quarterly money numbers) and 538.com (national poll numbers as of today) — for the three major candidates and one I consider to be minor:<\/p>\n
Joe Biden: $22.7 million. Poll number: 27.8%<\/p>\n
Bernie Sanders: $34.5 million. His poll number: 18.7%.<\/p>\n
Elizabeth Warren hasn’t yet publicized her current quarter number. Her poll number: 14.9%<\/p>\n
Pete Buttigieg: $24.7 million. Poll number 7.5%<\/p>\n
So what about their opponent, running basically without competition in his own party? Trump raised $46 million this past quarter. His poll number? 42.4%. Wowser, right? Big number.<\/p>\n
Yeah, but I added up the monies collected in toto by the three Democratic candidates for whom we have these quarter numbers. The total? $81.9 million and when Warren reports, this total will probably go to $98 million. Reminder: Trump collected $46 million.<\/p>\n
If money does mean something, the Democratic candidates are doubling Trump’s numbers.<\/p>\n
Since one dollar does not mean one vote, I added up the poll numbers. The four top Democratic candidates total 68% of Democratic voters — 25.6% higher than Trump’s approval number.<\/p>\n
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I’ve been listening to pundits talk about the Democratic presidential campaign. I suppose because there are no firm numbers from actual voters, the pundits are concentrating on how much money the candidates have raised. And the way they talk about … Continue reading