{"id":54968,"date":"2022-05-04T19:48:46","date_gmt":"2022-05-04T23:48:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sidebarforplaintiffs.naomifein.net\/?p=54968"},"modified":"2022-05-04T19:48:46","modified_gmt":"2022-05-04T23:48:46","slug":"how-correct-were-the-ohio-gop-primary-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sidebarforplaintiffs.naomifein.net\/?p=54968","title":{"rendered":"How correct were the Ohio GOP primary polls?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Not spot on.<\/p>\n

As I noted, the GOP Ohio senate primary should be a test<\/a> of how accurate pollsters have become in their efforts to tap into voters’ minds and intentions.<\/p>\n

Here’s what they said before the voting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nEmerson (April 30)<\/td>\nVance 26, Mandel 24, Dolan 21, Gibbons 17, Timken 8, Pukita 2, Patel 2<\/td>\nVance +2<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n
FOX News (April 25)<\/td>\nVance 23, Mandel 18, Dolan 11, Gibbons 13, Timken 6, Pukita 1, Patel 1<\/td>\nVance +5<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Here’s how the voting turned out:<\/p>\n

Vance, 32.2, Mandel 23.9, Dolan 23.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Vance + 8.3<\/p>\n

Some news articles — one, I’m irritated to say, in the Times — about this primary have said this is a big victory for Trump, because at some recent point Trump waved his arm toward Vance. Vance was trailing, the article says, until Trump gave him his support.<\/p>\n

That’s sloppy inference for which there is no proof, not even a putative pre-primary poll which might have asked voters, “Are you waiting to hear who Trump supports before you make a decision?”<\/p>\n

As Dean Obeidallah<\/a> posted on Twitter, “JD Vance did NOT win because Trump endorsed him- Vance won because right wing billionaire Peter Thiel was able to LEGALLY donate nearly $14 million to Vance’s campaign via a Super PAC. Our political system is legally sanctioned corruption.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Although no research has yet been produced to correlate money spent on a campaign with numbers of votes, Obeidallah’s point makes more sense to me than Trump’s garbled endorsement.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Not spot on. As I noted, the GOP Ohio senate primary should be a test of how accurate pollsters have become in their efforts to tap into voters’ minds and intentions. Here’s what they said before the voting: Emerson (April … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7725,4789,1095,7934,1175,2902],"tags":[8722,8703,4746,2568,1172,1183],"class_list":["post-54968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-corruption","category-political-campaigns","category-politics","category-propaganda","category-the-facts-of-life","category-trump-stuff","tag-dean-obeidallah","tag-jd-vance","tag-peter-thiel","tag-super-pacs","tag-trump","tag-twitter"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t