Polls, polling and high anxiety: an easy test

Having just read the ratings sportswriters have published for the NFL draft, I wonder, as always, how their opinions will compare to the results on the football field.

But NFL draft ratings are not what this is about. Indeed, one guy (it’s almost always guys) who commented on a newspaper columnist’s ratings, said he’d like to see how these ratings turn out after three years.

However, one easy, fast test of how pollsters are doing with politics is the GOP Senate primary in Ohio, because that election will be on Tuesday. That is, the day after today. And the only factual way to see what’s going on in the country — any country — is election results, not polls, not opinion pieces in newspapers, not outrage on Twitter.


In normal circumstances I wouldn’t pay much attention to GOP primaries because, well… This primary, though, will be an interesting reality test. Will the Trumpster performance crazies get the votes? Will the remnants of a dying party get some support? How on or off are pollsters and opinionators?

Nate Silver’s 538.com has not done polling analysis for the Ohio GOP primary so I’ll grab the info from RealClearPolitics. Then, on Wednesday, I’ll compare the current poll numbers (which are below), with the reality.

Emerson (April 30) Vance 26, Mandel 24, Dolan 21, Gibbons 17, Timken 8, Pukita 2, Patel 2 Vance +2
FOX News (April 25) Vance 23, Mandel 18, Dolan 11, Gibbons 13, Timken 6, Pukita 1, Patel 1 Vance +5

I will not be doing anything like this for the NFL draftees. I choose to live in expansive hope. The high round picks will be brilliant and the lower ranked picks will be dazzling surprises.

Vance, 32.2, Mandel 23.9, Dolan 23.3          Vance + 8.3

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