Tag Archives: 538

The battle against rationality

Posted on April 22, 2022 by Naomi

Last week, Nate Silver, the maestro of 538.com, posted this tweet: The theory that “misinformation” has changed electoral outcomes in the US is pretty badly underbaked, especially given that the last several elections have broadly been in line with what … Continue reading →

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When things are too crazy, here’s where you can see sanity

Posted on October 6, 2020 by Naomi

In the polls. I think I’ve mentioned previously that I don’t pick up on individual polls, either to get overexcited or deeply gloomy. And I don’t waste my time on Real Clear Politics. Their poll averages are just dumb. If … Continue reading →

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Who is winning the 538 polls of…pollsters?

Posted on May 20, 2020 by Naomi

Bless 538. They’ve just published their new pollster ratings. And there’s a search function, especially useful since the pollsters listed on the screen are not all the pollsters. This means that whenever we read about election polls not yet evaluated … Continue reading →

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