From 538 Significant Digits:
Ah, the signs of summer. Three runners — two Americans and a Spaniard — were gored by bulls in Pamplona over the weekend, according to Spanish officials. One was gored in the neck and the other two were gored in the thigh. Thanks, Hemingway. [Associated Press]
Speaking of 538’s significant digits, do not swallow the reports that Trump’s approval rating is up to 47 or so. It isn’t. It’s been hovering slightly above 42 for months.
Problem is, certain pundits on TV — today it was John Podhoretz on MSNBC — take the last poll they’ve seen and proclaim its number as if it’s correct. It’s not. Without 538’s scrupulous, multi-step poll analysis (which takes into consideration the quality of each poll and hundreds of other factors), you can’t take one poll as Truth.
Do not panic. Rely on Nate. Trump’s polls are barely shifting.